Jesse Jenkins

In many countries, declining demand in energy-intensive industries (EIIs) such as cement, steel, and aluminum is leading to industrial overcapacity. Although industrial overcapacity is traditionally envisioned as problematic and resource-wasteful, it could unlock EIIs'flexibility in electricity use. Here, using China's aluminum smelting industry as a case study, we evaluate the system-level cost-benefit of retaining EII overcapacity for flexible electricity use in decarbonized energy systems. We find that overcapacity can enable aluminum smelters to adopt a seasonal operation paradigm, ceasing production during winter load peaks that are exacerbated by heating electrification and renewable seasonality. This seasonal operation paradigm could reduce the investment and operational costs of China's decarbonized electricity system by 23-32 billion CNY/year (11-15% of the aluminum smelting industry's product value), sufficient to offset the increased smelter maintenance and product storage costs associated with overcapacity. It may also create labor complementarities between the aluminum and thermal power sectors.

Abstract We present a graph-theoretic modeling approach for hierarchical optimization that leverages the OptiGraph abstraction implemented in the package . We show that the abstraction is flexible and can effectively capture complex hierarchical connectivity that arises from decision-making over multiple spatial and temporal scales (e.g., integration of planning, scheduling, and operations in manufacturing and infrastructures). We also show that the graph abstraction facilitates the conceptualization and implementation of decomposition and approximation schemes. Specifically, we propose a graph-based Benders decomposition (gBD) framework that enables the exploitation of hierarchical (nested) structures and that uses graph aggregation/partitioning procedures to discover such structures. In addition, we provide a implementation of gBD, which we call . We illustrate the capabilities using examples arising in the context of energy and power systems.

Abstract Large-scale deployment of direct air capture (DAC) will lead to significant demand for heat and electricity. Supplying heat and electricity can result in significant emissions if served by carbon-intensive sources of energy. This is a particular concern because DAC is capital intensive and likely to be run at close to maximum output. This makes it challenging for DAC plants to be powered solely by cheap, intermittent, clean sources of power such as wind and solar.We undertake an interdisciplinary study combining process engineering with a detailed macro-energy system optimization model to evaluate the site and system-level costs of combining high-temperature thermal energy storage (TES) with DAC. TES has the ability to decouple the timing of thermal consumption and power generation, allowing DAC’s thermal loads to be served through electricity from intermittent renewable energy. We compare solid sorbent-based DAC plants combined with TES to solid sorbent-based DAC facilities with grid-powered heat pumps. We use the region of Texas as a case study. We find that DAC plants with TES are roughly 3% more expensive but incentivize greater investment in clean electricity sources on the power grid, resulting in substantially lower indirect emissions. As a result, the net cost of carbon removal for DAC with TES, after accounting for indirect emissions, is up to 30% cheaper than DAC facilities with grid- powered heat pumps. Overall, we find that the indirect power system emission impacts from deployment of DAC are not trivial and can range from 10%–25% of gross DAC removals. Coupling DAC with TES can eliminate these indirect emissions.

Abstract Climate change is expected to increase the severity of hurricanes and tropical storms, posing significant risks to the electricity grid. These include downed power lines, damaged solar panels, and impaired wind turbines from high winds. New York (NY) and New Jersey (NJ) are not spared from these vulnerabilities and must strengthen their infrastructure and mitigate social and technical impacts. Clean energy mandates, such as NJ’s Executive Orders No. 315 and 307 (100% clean energy by 2035 and 11 GW of offshore wind by 2040), and NY’s Executive Order No. 166 (40% emissions reduction by 2030), add urgency to ensuring grid resilience under extreme weather. This study demonstrates the power system cyclone impact model (PCIM), used alongside the GenX electricity system planning tool, to assess grid resilience under hurricane-induced high wind speeds in the NY and NJ region. Results reveal that onshore and offshore wind could contribute additional power during storms, provided transmission and storage systems remain operational. This output helps offset outages elsewhere in the grid across all storm categories. In contrast, solar emerges as a vulnerability due to combined impacts from wind stress and cloud cover, significantly reducing generation during and after storms. Thermal generators show the lowest failure rates, though this may partly reflect current model limitations, as only wind stress and cloud cover are considered, excluding hazards like flooding. Non-served energy costs vary with electricity demand and fluctuations in wind and solar output. July stands out as the most vulnerable month, due to high demand and limited wind generation, leading to higher non-served energy. This research provides a first step toward understanding storm-related grid resilience in NJ and NY. The PCIM is designed to be generalizable, with future work focused on expanding its scope to include additional hazards like storm surge and flooding, and more storm-prone regions.

Abstract In 2022, the U.S. government passed unprecedented climate and social equity legislation—the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—designed to incentivize renewable and low-carbon energy deployment, promote domestic supply chains, and address labor and environmental justice concerns. In this study, we model the effects of the IRA on renewable energy manufacturing and development costs and deployment. We find that tax credits to encourage expansion of U.S. manufacturing are likely to generate comparative cost advantages for domestically-produced components across the utility-scale solar and wind supply chain relative to imported components. We also show that the bonus rate tax credits for renewable developers will decrease the U.S. average levelized cost of utility-scale solar (26%–65%), land-based wind (43%–61%), and offshore wind (16%–19%) projects, even when accounting for uncertainty in inflation, domestic content of renewable components, and pass-through of component cost savings associated with the manufacturing tax credit to developers. Additional tax credits available to developers meeting energy community and domestic content share requirements further reduce costs for qualifying projects. We find that tax credits for renewable developers collectively have the potential to substantially increase the deployment of renewable infrastructure, drive demand for domestically-produced components, and foster workforce access, higher wages, and the retention of workers. A large share of renewable investments and capacity may flow to disadvantaged communities (27% and 46% for utility-scale solar and land-based wind projects, respectively), although inframarginal changes in development costs associated with place-based incentives, such as the energy community tax credit, may be insufficient to influence project siting decisions, given transmission constraints, spatial proximity to electricity demand, and renewable resource potential.

High costs of green hydrogen and of carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS) have hindered policy ambition and slowed real-world deployment, despite their importance for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, including cement and methanol. Given the economic challenges of adopting CCUS in cement and green hydrogen in methanol production separately, we propose a renewable-powered co-production system that couples electrolytic hydrogen and CCUS through molecule exchange. We optimize system configurations using an hourly-resolved, process-based model incorporating operational flexibility, and explore integrated strategies for plant-level deployment and CO2 source-sink matching across China. We find that co-production could reduce CO2 abatement costs to USD 41-53 per tonne by 2035, significantly lower than approximately USD 75 for standalone cement CCUS and over USD 120 for standalone renewable-based methanol. Co-production is preferentially deployed at cement plants in renewable-rich regions, potentially reshaping national CO2 infrastructure planning. This hydrogen-CCUS coupling paradigm could accelerate industrial decarbonization and scaling for other applications.

Abstract While electrifying transportation eliminates tailpipe greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, electric vehicle (EV) adoption can create additional electricity sector emissions. To quantify this emissions impact, prior work typically employs short-run marginal emissions or average emissions rates calculated from historical data or power systems models that do not consider changes in installed capacity. In this work, we use an electricity system capacity expansion model to consider the full consequential GHG emissions impact from large-scale EV adoption in the western United States, accounting for induced changes in generation and storage capacity. We find that the metrics described above do not accurately reflect the true emissions impact of EV adoption–average emissions rates can either under - or over -estimate emission impacts, and short-run marginal emissions rates can significantly underestimate emission reductions, especially when charging timing is flexible. Our results also show that using short-run marginal emission rates as signals to coordinate EV charging could increase emissions relative to price-based charging signals, indicating the need for alternative control strategies to minimize consequential emissions.

Abstract This study performs a detailed intercomparison of four open-source electricity capacity expansion models—Temoa, Switch, GenX, and USENSYS—to evaluate (1) how closely the results of these models align when inputs and configurations are harmonized, and (2) the degree to which varying model configurations affect outputs. We harmonize the inputs to each model using PowerGenome and use clearly defined scenarios (policy conditions) and configurations (model setup choices). This allows us to isolate how differences in model structure affect policy outcomes and investment decisions. Our framework allows each model to be tested on identical assumptions for policy, technology costs, and operational constraints, allowing us to focus on differences that arise from inherent model structures. Key findings highlight that, when harmonized, models produce very similar capacity portfolios under current policies and net-zero scenarios, with less than 1% difference in system costs for most configurations. This agreement among models allows us to focus on how configuration choices affect model results. For instance, configurations with unit commitment constraints or economic retirement yield different investments and system costs compared to simpler configurations. Our findings underscore the importance of aligning input data and transparently defining scenarios and configurations to provide robust policy insights.

Decarbonization and its shift towards highly-renewable energy systems is creating a new opportunity to incorporate public preferences in energy system planning. The transition provides new opportunities to plan energy systems for improved health, resilience, equity, and environmental outcomes, but challenges in siting and social acceptance of transition goals and targets threaten progress. Modelling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) provides an optimization method for capturing many near-cost-optimal system configurations, and thus can provide insights into the tradeoffs between objectives and flexibility available in the system. However, MGA is currently limited in interactive applicability to these problems due to a lack of methods for allowing users to explore near-optimal feasible spaces. In this paper, we introduce a novel MGA post-processing algorithm, Modelling to Generate Continuous Alternatives (MGCA). MGCA provides the ability to explore the interior of the near-optimal feasible set, including capacity metric values and estimations of operational metric values, extremely rapidly using all the tools of linear programming by introducing an exploratory optimization problem on a reduced dimension subspace of the original capacity expansion model. We find an upper-bound for operational metric interpolation error and provide methods to limit this error and guarantee user-aded constraint satisfaction. We demonstrate that this problem can be leveraged to explore the discovered near-optimal feasible space with other optimization tools, including multi-objective optimization and the imposition of new constraints. Finally, we demonstrate that MGCA interpolates can be exported to a capacity decision constrained capacity expansion model to evaluate their operational outcomes with least-cost dispatch more quickly than solving traditional MGA problems. All MGCA capabilities except operational model evaluation can be implemented on personal computers and solved in fractions of a second, making them perfectly suited for live, interactive applications including decision support, negotiations, siting discussions, community engagement, and preference gathering.

While electrifying transportation eliminates tailpipe greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, electric vehicle (EV) adoption can create additional electricity sector emissions. To quantify this emissions impact, prior work typically employs short-run marginal emissions or average emissions rates calculated from historical data or power systems models that do not consider changes in installed capacity. In this work, we use an electricity system capacity expansion model to consider the full consequential GHG emissions impact from large-scale EV adoption in the western United States, accounting for induced changes in generation and storage capacity. We find that the metrics described above do not accurately reflect the true emissions impact of EV adoption-average emissions rates can either under- or over-estimate emission impacts, and short-run marginal emissions rates can significantly underestimate emission reductions, especially when charging timing is flexible. Our results also show that using short-run marginal emission rates as signals to coordinate EV charging could increase emissions relative to price-based charging signals, indicating the need for alternative control strategies to minimize consequential emissions.

Data for Modelling to Generate Continuous Alternatives: Enabling Real-Time Feasible Portfolio Generation in Convex Planning Models Article

Clean hydrogen will play an indispensable role in decarbonizing “hard-to-abate” sectors. However, it is not a “one-size-fits-all” solution because clean hydrogen production currently entails low energy efficiency, high costs, limited supply and risks of leakage.  U.S. policy efforts to date have focused on the supply of clean hydrogen.  However, prioritizing demand applications that maximize environmental and economic benefits is critical. Here we evaluate clean hydrogen’s decarbonization potential in a variety of energy-intensive sectors in the U.S. circa 2035.  We identify oil refining, ammonia production, and steelmaking as “no-regret” sectors, whereas on-road transport and trains fall into the “do-not-use” category. We compare the implications of policymakers GHG mitigation objectives and stakeholder profit maximizing objectives and find that current supply-side subsidies are insufficient to ensure optimal clean hydrogen allocation. Sector-specific demand-side policies are required to align priorities of policymakers and stakeholders to maximize the potential benefits of clean hydrogen.

SUMMARY Targeting one of the largest CO 2 -emitting sectors, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized new regulations on power plant emissions in 2024. However, the regulations are complex, with multiple mitigation options for compliance, making it difficult to understand their consequential effects on total CO 2 emissions. We evaluate these effects by enhancing a capacity expansion model via incorporating new detailed operational constraints tailored to different technologies based on the EPA’s new rules. We show that the new rules could nearly double power sector CO 2 emissions reductions through 2040, bringing emissions to about 51% below the 2022 level at low average cost per ton avoided, driven primarily by coal retirements. However, the rules omit regulations on existing natural gas generators, encouraging greater use of inefficient older gas plants. We find that emissions could be cost-effectively driven to 81%–88% below 2022 levels if the EPA’s rules were applied equally to all gas generators, regardless of vintage.

Abstract Expanding transmission capacity is likely a bottleneck that will restrict variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment required to achieve ambitious emission reduction goals. Interconnection and inter-zonal transmission buildout may be displaced by the optimal sizing of VRE to grid connection capacity and by the co-location of VRE and battery resources behind interconnection. However, neither of these capabilities is commonly captured in macro-energy system models. We develop two new functionalities to explore the substitutability of storage for transmission and the optimal capacity and siting decisions of renewable energy and battery resources through 2030 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. Our findings indicate that modeling optimized interconnection and storage co-location better captures the full value of energy storage and its ability to substitute for transmission. Optimizing interconnection capacity and co-location can reduce total grid connection and shorter-distance transmission capacity expansion on the order of 10% at storage penetration equivalent to 2.5%–10% of peak system demand. The decline in interconnection capacity corresponds with greater ratios of VRE to grid connection capacity (an average of 1.5–1.6 megawatt (MW) PV:1 MW inverter capacity, 1.2–1.3 MW wind:1 MW interconnection). Co-locating storage with VREs also results in a 9%–13% increase in wind capacity, as wind sites tend to require longer and more costly interconnection. Finally, co-located storage exhibits higher value than standalone storage in our model setup (up to ∼43%–45%). Given the coarse representation of transmission networks in our modeling, this outcome likely overstates the real-world importance of storage co-location with VREs. However, it highlights how siting storage in grid-constrained locations can maximize the value of storage and reduce transmission expansion.

Emissions reductions may be met with relatively small costs.

We consider electricity capacity expansion models, which optimize investment and retirement decisions by minimizing both investment and operation costs. In order to provide credible support for planning and policy decisions, these models need to include detailed operations and time-coupling constraints, consider multiple possible realizations of weather-related parameters and demand data, and allow modeling of discrete investment and retirement decisions. Such requirements result in large-scale mixed-integer optimization problems that are intractable with off-the-shelf solvers. Hence, practical solution approaches often rely on carefully designed abstraction techniques to find the best compromise between reduced computational burden and model accuracy. Benders decomposition offers scalable approaches to leverage distributed computing resources and enable models with both high resolution and computational performance. In this study, we implement a tailored Benders decomposition method for large-scale capacity expansion models with multiple planning periods, stochastic operational scenarios, time-coupling policy constraints, and multi-day energy storage and reservoir hydro resources. Using multiple case studies, we also evaluate several level-set regularization schemes to accelerate convergence. We find that a regularization scheme that selects planning decisions in the interior of the feasible set shows superior performance compared to previously published methods, enabling high-resolution, mixed-integer planning problems with unprecedented computational performance.

Abstract Multi-day energy storage (MDS), a subset of long-duration energy storage, may become a critical technology for the decarbonization of the power sector, as current commercially available Lithium-ion battery storage technologies cannot cost-effectively shift energy to address multi-day or seasonal variability in demand and renewable energy availability. MDS is difficult to model in existing energy system planning models (such as electricity system capacity expansion models (CEMs)), as it is much more dependent on an accurate representation of chronology than other resources. Techniques exist for modeling MDS in these planning models; however, it is not known how spatial and temporal resolution affect the performance of these techniques, creating a research gap. In this study we examine what spatial and temporal resolution is necessary to accurately capture the full value of MDS, in the context of a continent-scale CEM. We use the results to draw conclusions and present best practices for modelers seeking to accurately model MDS in a macro-energy systems planning context. Our key findings are: (1) modeling MDS with linked representative periods is crucial to capturing its full value, (2) MDS value is highly sensitive to the cost and availability of other resources, and (3) temporal resolution is more important than spatial resolution for capturing the full value of MDS, although how much temporal resolution is needed will depend on the specific model context.

This study performs a detailed intercomparison of four open-source electricity capacity expansion models - Temoa, Switch, GenX, and USENSYS - to evaluate 1) how closely the results of these models align when inputs and configurations are harmonized, and 2) the degree to which varying model configurations affect outputs. We harmonize the inputs to each model using PowerGenome and use clearly defined scenarios (policy conditions) and configurations (model setup choices). This allows us to isolate how differences in model structure affect policy outcomes and investment decisions. Our framework allows each model to be tested on identical assumptions for policy, technology costs, and operational constraints, allowing us to focus on differences that arise from inherent model structures. Key findings highlight that, when harmonized, models produce very similar capacity portfolios under current policies and net-zero scenarios, with less than 1% difference in system costs for most configurations. This agreement among models allows us to focus on how configuration choices affect model results. For instance, configurations with unit commitment constraints or economic retirement yield different investments and system costs compared to simpler configurations. Our findings underscore the importance of aligning input data and transparently defining scenarios and configurations to provide robust policy insights.

Direct air capture (DAC) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is energy intensive given the low concentration ( < 0.1%) of CO 2 in ambient air, but offers relatively strong verification of removals and limited land constraints to scale. Lower temperature solid sorbent based DAC could be coupled on-site with low carbon thermal generators such as nuclear power plants. Here, we undertake a unique interdisciplinary study combining process engineering with a detailed macro-energy system optimization model to evaluate the system-level impacts of such plant designs in the Texas electricity system. We contrast this with using grid power to operate a heat pump to regenerate the sorbent. Our analysis identifies net carbon removal costs accounting for power system impacts and resulting indirect CO 2 emissions from DAC energy consumption. We find that inefficient configurations of DAC at a nuclear power plant can lead to increases in power sector emissions relative to a case without DAC, at a scale that would cancel out almost 50% of the carbon removal from DAC. Net removal costs for the most efficient configurations increase by roughly 18% once indirect power system-level impacts are considered, though this is comparable to the indirect systems-level emissions from operating grid-powered heat pumps for sorbent regeneration. Our study therefore highlights the need for DAC energy procurement to be guided by consideration of indirect emission impacts on the electricity system. Finally, DAC could potentially create demand pull for zero carbon firm generation, accelerating decarbonization relative to a world without such DAC deployment. We find that DAC operators would have to be willing to pay existing or new nuclear power plants roughly $30–80/tCO 2 or $150–400/tCO 2 respectively, for input energy, to enable nuclear plants to be economically competitive in least cost electricity markets that do not have carbon constraints or subsidies for nuclear energy. • We build a process model to couple nuclear energy with direct air capture (DAC). • Using existing nuclear plants for DAC can increase system-level CO 2 emissions. • The most efficient configuration diverts steam prior to the low-pressure turbine. • Costs and CO 2 impacts are comparable to using grid powered industrial heat pumps. • DAC’s demand for zero carbon heat can pull in deployment of new nuclear plants.

Abstract As decarbonisation agendas mature, macro-energy systems modelling studies have increasingly focused on enhanced decision support methods that move beyond least-cost modelling to improve consideration of additional objectives and tradeoffs. One candidate is modelling to generate alternatives (MGA), which systematically explores new objectives without explicit stakeholder elicitation. This paper provides comparative testing of four existing MGA methodologies and proposes a new Combination vector selection approach. We examine each existing method’s runtime, parallelizability, new solution discovery efficiency, and spatial exploration in lower dimensional ( N ⩽ 100) spaces, as well as spatial exploration for all methods in a three-zone, 8760 h capacity expansion model case. To measure convex hull volume expansion, this paper formalizes a computationally tractable high-dimensional volume estimation algorithm. We find random vector provides the broadest exploration of the near-optimal feasible region and variable Min/Max provides the most extreme results, while the two tie on computational speed. The new Combination method provides an advantageous mix of the two. Additional analysis is provided on MGA variable selection, in which we demonstrate MGA problems formulated over generation variables fail to retain cost-optimal dispatch and are thus not reflective of real operations of equivalent hypothetical capacity choices. As such, we recommend future studies utilize a parallelized combined vector approach over the set of capacity variables for best results in computational speed and spatial exploration while retaining optimal dispatch.

Taking aim at one of the largest greenhouse gas emitting sectors, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized new regulations on power plant greenhouse gas emissions in May 2024. These rules take the form of different emissions performance standards for different classes of power plant technologies, creating a complex set of regulations that make it difficult to understand their consequential impacts on power system capacity, operations, and emissions without dedicated and sophisticated modeling. Here, we enhance a state-of-the-art power system capacity expansion model by incorporating new detailed operational constraints tailored to different technologies to represent the EPA's rules. Our results show that adopting these new regulations could reduce US power sector emissions in 2040 to 51% below the 2022 level (vs 26% without the rules). Regulations on coal-fired power plants drive the largest share of reductions. Regulations on new gas turbines incrementally reduce emissions but lower overall efficiency of the gas fleet, increasing the average cost of carbon mitigation. Therefore, we explore several alternative emission mitigation strategies. By comparing these alternatives with regulations finalized by EPA, we highlight the importance of accelerating the retirement of inefficient fossil fuel-fired generators and applying consistent and strict emissions regulations to all gas generators, regardless of their vintage, to cost-effectively achieve deep decarbonization and avoid biasing investment decisions towards less efficient generators.

Expanding transmission capacity is likely a bottleneck that will restrict variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment required to achieve ambitious emission reduction goals. Interconnection and inter-zonal transmission buildout may be displaced by the optimal sizing of VRE to grid connection capacity and by the co-location of VRE and battery resources behind interconnection. However, neither of these capabilities is commonly captured in macro-energy system models. We develop two new functionalities to explore the substitutability of storage for transmission and the optimal capacity and siting decisions of renewable energy and battery resources through 2030 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. Our findings indicate that modeling optimized interconnection and storage co-location better captures the full value of energy storage and its ability to substitute for transmission. Optimizing interconnection capacity and co-location can reduce total grid connection and shorter-distance transmission capacity expansion on the order of 10% at storage penetration equivalent to 2.5-10% of peak system demand. The decline in interconnection capacity corresponds with greater ratios of VRE to grid connection capacity (an average of 1.5-1.6 megawatt (MW) PV:1 MW inverter capacity, 1.2-1.3 MW wind:1 MW interconnection). Co-locating storage with VREs also results in a 10-15% increase in wind capacity, as wind sites tend to require longer and more costly interconnection. Finally, co-located storage exhibits higher value than standalone storage in our model setup (22-25%). Given the coarse representation of transmission networks in our modeling, this outcome likely overstates the real-world importance of storage co-location with VREs. However, it highlights how siting storage in grid-constrained locations can maximize the value of storage and reduce transmission expansion.

As decarbonisation agendas mature, macro-energy systems modelling studies have increasingly focused on enhanced decision support methods that move beyond least-cost modelling to improve consideration of additional objectives and tradeoffs. One candidate is modelling to generate alternatives (MGA), which systematically explores new objectives without explicit stakeholder elicitation. This paper provides comparative testing of four existing MGA methodologies and proposes a new Combination vector selection approach. We examine each existing method’s runtime, parallelizability, new solution discovery efficiency, and spatial exploration in lower dimensional (N ⩽100) spaces, as well as spatial exploration for all methods in a three-zone, 8760h capacity expansion model case. To measure convex hull volume expansion, this paper formalizes a computationally tractable high-dimensional volume estimation algorithm. We find random vector provides the broadest exploration of the near-optimal feasible region and variable Min/Max provides the most extreme results, while the two tie on computational speed. The new Combination method provides an advantageous mix of the two. Additional analysis is provided on MGA variable selection, in which we demonstrate MGA problems formulated over generation variables fail to retain cost-optimal dispatch and are thus not reflective of real operations of equivalent hypothetical capacity choices. As such, we recommend future studies utilize a parallelized combined vector approach over the set of capacity variables for best results in computational speed and spatial exploration while retaining optimal dispatch.

Hydrogen production from water electrolysis, direct air capture (DAC), and synthetic kerosene derived from hydrogen and CO2 (`e-kerosene') are expected to play an important role in global decarbonization efforts. So far, the economics of these nascent technologies hamper their market diffusion. However, a wave of recent policy support in the United States, Europe, China, and elsewhere is anticipated to drive their commercial liftoff and bring their costs down. To this end, we evaluate the potential cost reductions driven by policy-induced scale-up of these emerging technologies through 2030 using an experience curves approach accounting for both local and global learning effects. We then analyze the consequences of projected cost declines on the competitiveness of these nascent technologies compared to conventional fossil alternatives, where applicable, and highlight some of the tradeoffs associated with their expansion. Our findings indicate that enacted policies could lead to substantial capital cost reductions for electrolyzers. Nevertheless, electrolytic hydrogen production at $1-2/kg would still require some form of policy support. Given expected costs and experience curves, it is unlikely that liquid solvent DAC (L-DAC) scale-up will bring removal costs to stated targets of $100/tCO2, though a $200/tCO2 may eventually be within reach. We also underscore the importance of tackling methane leakage for natural gas-powered L-DAC: unmitigated leaks amplify net removal costs, exacerbate the investment requirements to reach targeted costs, and cast doubt on L-DAC's role in the clean energy transition. Lastly, despite reductions in electrolysis and L-DAC costs, e-kerosene remains considerably more expensive than fossil jet fuel. The economics of e-kerosene and the resources required for production raise questions about the fuel's ultimate viability as a decarbonization tool for aviation.

Abstract Runtime and memory requirements for typical formulations of energy system models increase non-linearly with resolution, computationally constraining large-scale models despite state-of-the-art solvers and hardware. This scaling paradigm requires omission of detail which can affect key outputs to an unknown degree. Recent algorithmic innovations employing decomposition have enabled linear increases in runtime and memory use as temporal resolution increases. Newly tractable, higher resolution systems can be compared with lower resolution configurations commonly employed today in academic research and industry practice, providing a better understanding of the potential biases or inaccuracies introduced by these abstractions. We employ a state-of-the art electricity system planning model and new high-resolution systems to quantify the impact of varying degrees of spatial, temporal, and operational resolution on results salient to policymakers and planners. We find models with high spatial and temporal resolution result in more realistic siting decisions and improved emissions, reliability, and price outcomes. Errors are generally larger in systems with low spatial resolution, which omit key transmission constraints. We demonstrate that high temporal resolution cannot overcome biases introduced by low spatial resolution, and vice versa. While we see asymptotic improvements to total system cost and reliability with increased resolution, other salient outcomes such as siting accuracy and emissions exhibit continued improvement across the range of model resolutions considered. We conclude that modelers should carefully balance resolution on spatial, temporal, and operational dimensions and that novel computational methods enabling higher resolution modeling are valuable and can further improve the decision support provided by this class of models.

Energy systems models, critical for power sector decision support, incur non-linear memory and runtime penalties when scaling up under typical formulations. Even hardware improvements cannot make large models tractable, requiring omission of detail which affects siting, cost, and emission outputs to an unknown degree. Recent algorithmic innovations have enabled large scale, high resolution modeling. Newly tractable, granular systems can be compared with coarse ones for better understanding of inaccuracies from low resolution. Here we use a state of the art model to quantify the impact of resolution on results salient to policymakers and planners, affording confidence in decision quality. We find more realistic siting in recommendations from high resolution energy systems models, improving emissions, reliability, and price outcomes. Errors are generally stronger from low spatial resolution. When models have low resolution in multiple dimensions, errors are introduced by the coarser of temporal or spatial resolution. We see no diminishing returns in accuracy for several key metrics when increasing resolution. We recommend using computationally efficient techniques to maximize granularity and allocating resolution without leaving any aspect (spatial, temporal, operational) of systems unduly coarse.